In a tumultuous year for our strife-ridden world, a glimmer of hope emerged on November 15 when U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping engaged in talks near San Francisco. Prior to this encounter, both nations seemed mired in a downward spiral of provocations, raising concerns among experts about the possibility of a full-blown crisis or even a nuclear war. The meeting, now referred to as the “San Francisco vision” in China, provided a momentary reprieve from these looming dangers, prompting the question of whether this retreat from disaster can endure throughout 2024.
Leading up to the summit, the prospects seemed grim, with potential breakdowns in relations, catastrophic trade wars, or military conflicts over Taiwan and the South China Sea on the horizon. From a Chinese balloon incident in February to bitter trade disputes and naval incidents, events appeared to be hurtling towards an inevitable catastrophe. The smallest misstep, as warned by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, could trigger a U.S.-China war surpassing the scale of conflicts like the one in Ukraine.
Both Beijing and Washington recognized the severe consequences of a crisis or war, understanding the economic chaos and global disruptions it could unleash. Efforts were underway, with top officials shuttling between capitals in an attempt to arrest the downward spiral. The question of whether the U.S. and China should engage in cooperation or confrontation became a pivotal consideration.
The San Francisco summit, while not a complete game-changer, succeeded in halting the descent into confrontation. Acknowledging ongoing competition, both sides committed to managing differences responsibly and avoiding conflict-inducing behaviors. The need to address risks related to advanced artificial intelligence systems and cooperation on combating climate change were among the modest steps taken.
However, fundamental policy alterations on crucial issues like Taiwan, trade, and technology transfers were notably absent. The summit, according to China scholar Xue Gong, may not alter the trajectory of U.S.-China relations away from strategic competition.
Looking ahead to 2024, challenges loom large. Two issues stand out as potential triggers for disaster: Taiwan and territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Taiwan, viewed by China as a renegade province, could become a flashpoint if it moves towards formal independence. The Biden administration’s response, characterized by “strategic ambiguity,” leaves room for interpretation but could be pressured towards a clearer commitment to defend Taiwan.
Similarly, the South China Sea dispute, with China asserting sovereignty over the entire region, poses economic and strategic implications. Military installations on contested islands and clashes between coast guards escalate tensions. The U.S. commitment to support allies facing Chinese aggression increases the risk of a major confrontation, especially considering recent military exercises in the region.
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